Modeling forage crops prodfction fsing the time series method

Abstract

This study deals with modeling by the time series method of the amounts produced of the forage crops of vetch, beets for fodder, silage maize, sainfoin, and alfalfa, which have a prominent place among the quality roughage resources in Turkey. Forecasted production quantities for the years 2017 and 2025 were determined using information on the quantities of forage crops produced between 1964 and 2016.The amount of vetch produced between 1964 and 2016 was modeled by ARIMA (0,1,1). The Brown exponential smoothing method was used for the production of beets for fodder and silage maize between 1969 and 2016, and the Holt exponential smoothing method was used for the production of sainfoin, and alfalfa between 1969 and 2016. As a result of the modeling, an increase in the production of vetch, silage maize, sainfoin,and alfalfa was forecasted. This increase in the amount is considered to be the effect of the support policies for forage crops that have been implemented in recent years. It is considered that the production of beets for fodder will decrease since the support is lower than that for other forage crops and because of the lack of continuity. © by PSP