Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorCelik, S. and Ankarali, H. and Pasin, O.
dc.date.accessioned2021-04-08T12:06:35Z
dc.date.available2021-04-08T12:06:35Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.identifier10.1017/dmp.2020.323
dc.identifier.issn19357893
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85092279692&doi=10.1017%2fdmp.2020.323&partnerID=40&md5=fefd69fd5d2174fb38b6053bbfd66aeb
dc.identifier.urihttp://acikerisim.bingol.edu.tr/handle/20.500.12898/4004
dc.description.abstractObjective:The objective of this study is to compare the various nonlinear and time series models in describing the course of the COVID-19 outbreak in China. To this aim, we focus on two indicators including the number of total cases diagnosed with the disease, and the death toll.Methods:The data used for this study isbased on the reports of China between January 22-June 18, 2020. We used nonlinear growth curves and some time series models for prediction of the number of total cases and total deaths. The determination coefficient (R2), mean square error (MSE), and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) were used to select the best model.Results:Our results show that while the Sloboda and ARIMA (0,2,1) models are the most convenient models that elucidate the cumulative number of cases; the Lundqvist-Korf model and Holt linear trend exponential smoothing model are the most suitable models for analyzing the cumulative number of deaths.Our time series models forecast that on 19 July, the number of total cases and total deaths will be 85589 and 4639, respectively.Conclusion:The results of this study will be of great importance when it comes to modeling outbreak indicators for other countries. This information will enable governments to implement suitable measures for subsequent similar situations. Copyright © 2020 Society for Disaster Medicine and Public Health, Inc.
dc.language.isoEnglish
dc.sourceDisaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness
dc.titleMODELLING of COVID-19 OUTBREAK INDICATORS in China between January and June


Files in this item

FilesSizeFormatView

There are no files associated with this item.

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record