General Situation of Beekeeping in the Eastern Anatolian Region of Turkey and ARIMA Model with the Help of Long-term Analysis

Abstract

With this study, the overall situation of beekeeping in Eastern and possible future cases in light of the available data reveals, the problem of identifying and developing some proposals aimed. This study presents a study of the current status (During the 1991-2005 period) and 15-year trend of beekeeping in the Eastern Anatolian Region of Turkey. Study has indicated the current situation of beekeeping. At this stage, a simple proportional tables, simple index, chain index and an average annual growth rate of such analysis is used. The long-term trend analysis for the prediction of the future, the ARIMA Model Used. The 17.05\% of total honey production of Turkey is produced in this region and it contains 18.33\% of the total bee hives. There are a total of 4.027 villages and 841.000 beehives in the Eastern Anatolian Region producing 14.116 tons honey. Honey production per bee hive is close to the Turkish average (16.7 kg). In the 1991-2005 period, the annual average increase in the number of hives number was -2.43\%; honey production decreased by -1.86\% and wax production was reduced by -0.94\%. According to ARMA analysis, the honey production in 2005 of 14 thousand tons, 14.6 thousand tons in 2020 would be approximately estimated. In the long term trend analysis, it was found that if honey production continues with the current techniques and information level of the farmers, no development will be achieved in honey and wax production in the long term.