Investigation of seasonal changes of rainfall with trend analysis methods: The case of bingöl province [Yağışların mevsimsel değişimlerinin trend analiz yöntemleri ile araştırılması: Bingöl ili örneği]

Abstract

Many scientific studies have been carried out to examine the changes that occur and are likely to come in climates. These studies consist of statistical analysis of the changes in the past and estimating the changes that may occur in the future. Trend analysis methods have an important place among the forecast scenarios produced. In this study, the measured values between the years of 1960-2017, belonging to precipitation observation stations within the borders of Bingöl province, were analyzed by using Mann-Kendall (MK) and Şen innovative trend analysis (Şen-ITA) methods in annual and seasonal periods. The results showed that there were statistically significant decreasing trends in the total precipitation values of some stations on an annual scale. In terms of seasonal changes, it was observed that different tendency situations emerged between the locations of the stations and the seasons. In particular, the findings in the Şen-ITA method show significant changes in many total precipitation data. According to these findings, decreasing trends calculated between 0-2 mm/year in total annual precipitation were determined and these results were supported by Mann-Kendall test results. In addition, when the seasonal test findings are examined, it is determined that there is a seasonal transition in the values of some stations. © 2021, TUBITAK. All rights reserved.